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萨缪尔森的一些警告  

2009-06-16 22:34:50|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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著名的经济学家及经济学教材作者保罗·萨缪尔森,有一些不祥的预感要说:
到目前,中国还是持有低收益的美国国债的。这是个好消息。但是几乎肯定这是不会持续的。
 
有一天,也许很快,中国便会对美元变得悲观。那对美国经济来说将是致命的麻烦。当抛售美元的骚动重现时,我相信一个真正的全球金融恐慌就会来了。
 
中国、日本、韩国现在持有美元并不是因为他们认为美元是安全的。他们这样做的首要原因是因为这是一条延长其出口带动型经济增长的重要途径。
 
我并不是唯一担心未来收支平衡问题的人。沃伦·巴菲特就变成了一个贸易保护主义者。唉,贸易保护主义很可能会变得更有害。
 
奥巴马总统在努力支持自由贸易,但是作为一个精明的中间派总统,他必定会受到压力而作出妥协。
 
他还得面对一个新的长期压力,他的专家现在必须立刻为美国从属于中国制定计划,中国才是世界经济领导都关心的地方。
英文原文:
 
Samuelson's Words of Warning
 
Paul Samuelson, the great economist and textbook author, has some ominous things to say:

Up until now, China has been willing to hold her recycled resources in the form of lowest-yield U.S. Treasury bills. That's still good news. But almost certainly it cannot and will not last.

Some day -- maybe even soon -- China will turn pessimistic on the U.S. dollar. That means lethal troubles for the future U.S. economy. When a disorderly run against the dollar occurs, I believe a truly global financial panic is to be feared.

China, Japan and Korea now hold dollars not because they think dollars will stay safe. Why then? They do this primarily because that is a way that can prolong their export-led growth.

I am not alone in this paranoid future balance-of-payment fear. Warren Buffett, for one, has turned protectionist. Alas, protectionism may well soon become more maligned.*

President Obama struggles to support free trade. But as a canny centrist president, he will be very pressed to compromise.

And he will be under new chronic pressures. His experts should right now be making plans for America to become subordinate to China where world economic leadership is concerned.

---

*From Greg: I wonder whether the intended meaning of this sentence was lost in editing. "Malign," the adjective that means "injurious," makes more sense here than "maligned," the past participle that means "spoken ill of.".

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