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中国——灿如烟花(2)   

2009-07-21 13:30:34|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Chinese nationalism is also on the rise. The Internet has made young Chinese more nationalistic. The Chinese are acquiring resources all around the world and with them, willy-nilly, an overseas empire that threatens U.S. interests.The Chinese are building their Navy, a historic precursor to expanded ambitions and global conflict.

中国的民族主义也有所上升。互联网使中国的年轻人更加倾向民族主义。中国人正在全世界获取资源,随着而来的是必然是一个海外帝国,威胁美国的利益。中国人正在建造自己的海军,这是扩张雄心与全球冲突的历史前奏。

Think of China, Ferguson concluded, as Kaiser Wilhelm’s Germany in the years before World War I: a growing, aggressive, nationalistic power whose ambitions will tear through pre-existing commercial ties and historic friendships.

弗格森的结论是,将中国看作一战前凯撒·威廉统治下的德国:一个蓬勃发展、咄咄逼人、民族主义浓厚的强国,其野心将撕碎以前的商业关系和传统友谊。

James Fallows of The Atlantic has lived in China for the past three years. He agreed with parts of Ferguson’s take on the economic fundamentals, but seemed to regard Ferguson’s analysis of the Chinese psychology as airy-fairy academic theorizing. At one point, while Fallows was defending Chinese intentions, Ferguson shot back: “You’ve been in China too long.” Fallows responded that there must be a happy medium between being in China too long and being in China too little.

《大西洋》杂志的詹姆斯·佛罗斯过去3年一直住在中国。他部分地同意弗格森经济基本原理上的观点,不过他似乎认为,弗格森有关中国人心理的分析是空想的学术理论推断。在某一点上,佛洛斯为中国的意图辩护时,佛格森反驳道:“您是在中国驻的太久了”。佛洛斯回答,应该在在中国居住太久和居住太短之间有一个令人满意的中介。

Fallows pointed out that there is no one thing called “China” or “the Chinese,” and that many of the most anti-American statements from Chinese officials are made to blunt domestic anxiety and make further integration possible. That integration, Fallows continued, is deep and will get deeper. Many, many Chinese leaders were educated in the U.S. and admire or at least respect it. If you go to cities like Xian, you find American and European aviation firms fully integrated into the commercial fabric there.

佛洛斯指出不存在一个所谓“中国”或“中国人”的问题,中国官员许多反对美国的申述,其目的主要是钝化国内的不安,使之与世界进一步的融合成为可能。佛洛斯继续说,这种融合是深刻的,并且将越来越深刻。太多太多的中国领导人在美国接受过教育,他们敬慕或者至少尊重美国。如果您去西安这样的城市,您会发现,美国和欧洲航空公司在那里已经完全融合成为商业网络。

Fallows’s main argument, though, was psychological. When he lived in Japan in the 1980s, he said, he sometimes felt that the Japanese had a chip-on-their-shoulder attitude in which their success was bound to U.S. decline. He says he rarely got that feeling in China. Instead, he has described officials who are thrilled to be integrated in the world. Their mothers had bound feet. They themselves plowed the fields in the Cultural Revolution. Now they get to join the world.

固然,佛洛斯的主要观点基于心理分析。他说,上世纪80年代他住在日本,法洛斯的主要论点是心理上的。他说,他八十年代在日本生活的时候,有时候感到日本人有种愤愤不平的态度,认为他们的成功注定要美国衰退。他说他在中国很少有这种感觉。相反,他称官员们对于融入世界感到很激动。他们的母亲缠过足。他们自己曾在文革期间犁田。如今,他们融入世界了。

Some of the officials interviewed by Fallows believe the U.S. is following unsustainable fiscal policies that will lead to decline, but they view this with frustration, not joy. Fallows doesn’t know what the future will hold, but he believes that Chinese officials still see the dollar as their least risky investment. Domestically, China will not turn democratic, but individual liberties will expand. He agreed that China and the U.S. will dominate the 21st century, but he painted the picture of a more benign cooperation.

佛洛斯采访过的一些官员认为,美国实行的是不可持续的财政政策,到导致衰退,但他们对此有挫折感,而不是感到喜悦。法洛斯不知道未来会怎样,但他相信中国官员仍然视美国为风险最低的投资。在国内,中国不会转向民主,但个人自由会扩大。他认同中国和美国将主导21世纪,但他描述的画面呈现出更加良性的合作。

I came to the debate agreeing more with Fallows and left the same way, but I was impressed by how powerfully Ferguson made his case. And I was struck by their agreement about what to do. This conversation, like many conversations these days, gets back to America’s debt. Until the U.S. gets its fiscal house in order, relations with countries like China will be fundamentally insecure.

我原本就较为赞成佛洛斯的观点,参加完讨论之后仍然是这样。但弗格森有力地坚持自己的观点,给我留下深刻印象。在要做什么事情方面,他们却达成共识,这令我感到震惊。这次谈话和近来的很多谈话一样,回归到美国的债务上。在美国整顿好自己的财政之前,和中国这样的国家的关系根本上是不安全的。

 

           —— ——全文结束 

 


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