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“赤字中性”不就是个很容易的试金石么?  

2009-07-21 00:38:34|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Monday, July 20, 2009

Is "deficit neutrality" too easy a test?

【kucha】译

The President's economic team regularly reminds us of the following:
  1. The United States faces a large long-term fiscal gap between spending and tax revenue.
  2. That gap is driven in large measure by increasing healthcare costs.
  3. Healthcare reform should "bend the curve" and reduce future healthcare costs.

 

总统的经济小组时不时地提醒我们下面一些:

1,美国面临着长期性的税收与支出之间的财政鸿沟。

2,这个鸿沟很大程度上,是由不断增长的医疗支出造成的。

3,医疗改革应该“使消费曲线弯下来”,并且减少预期的医疗支出。

In light of these facts, shouldn't the healthcare reform bill be more than deficit neutral? Shouldn't it reduce the long-term structural deficit? As Donald Marron points out, current Congressional efforts do not even meet the standard of deficit neutrality. But even if they were deficit neutral, that would hardly be a success.

在了解这些之后呢,医疗改革提案是不是应该更加赤字中性一些?是不是应该减少长期结构性赤字?就像Donald Marron支持的那样,最近国会努力甚至根本没有达到赤字中性的标准。但即使他们达到了,我觉得医疗改革也很难成功

We were once told that healthcare reform would help fix our long-term fiscal problems. Now the standard is that healthcare reform won't make these problems worse.

曾经我们被告知说,医疗改革将会帮助调整长期的财政问题。现在基准已经降低至医疗改革至少不会使问题恶化!

By the way, for new readers of this blog, I wrote about my preferred solutions to the long-term fiscal gap here.

顺便为了那些我的博客的新读者,我把我以前写的最完美的解决长期财政鸿沟的方法贴在这里

Update: A reader suggests an analogy: An obese friend is told that he should exercise more. Instead, he adds an extra serving of cake after dinner. But don't worry: His cake-eating plan is calorie-neutral, as he promises to exercise more as well. 

更新:

一位读者推荐了一个类似的例子:人们告诉一个胖子他应该多做些运动了。他反而呢,在晚餐后多加一个蛋糕吃。但是无须担心,他吃蛋糕的计划是“卡路里中性的”,因为他也保证会多做些运动
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