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向海萨尼学习博弈论(4)  

2009-07-20 23:00:36|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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四、海萨尼对信息经济学的决定性影响


In the later 1970sand 1980s, John Harsanyi's consistent Bayesian model became the standardconceptual structure that economists of my generation used to understandinformational problems in economics. We studied his 1967-1968 papers, and theygave us a common framework in which Vickrey's (1961) auctions, Akerlof's (1970)market for lemons, and Spence's (1973) labor markets, and Rothschild andStiglitz's (1976) insurance markets could all be seen as interesting examplesof people playing Harsanyi's Bayesian games. Having this common framework forsuch informational problems enabled us to apply insights from the study of anyone of them to all the others, and thus the new economics of information wasdeveloped. Harsanyi's Bayesian framework even transformed our understanding ofthe older analysis of complete-information games, following his 1973 paperwhich taught us to interpret randomized equilibria as indicators of thedecisive impact of minor private information in rational competitive behavior.

 1970年代晚期和1980年代,John Harsanyi的一致性的Bayesian模型,成为了标准概念性结构。我这一代的经济学家,用它来理解经济学中的信息问题。我们研究了他1967-1968年的文章,这些文章给我们以共同的理论框架。在这个框架中,Vickrey(1961)的拍卖、Akerlof(1970)的柠檬市场、Spence1973)的劳动力市场和RothschildStiglitz(1976)的保险市场,都可以视作人们进行HarsanyiBayesian博弈的有趣例子。在信息问题上,当我们拥有了这个共同的框架,那就可以将一个例子中的研究成果,应用于其他全部例子了,全新的信息经济学因而也得以发展。HarsanyiBayesian框架,在他的1973年论文之后(该论文教会我们,要将“随机化的均衡”解释为“理性竞争行为中的微小微人信息的决定性结果”的指示器),改变了我们对更早的“完全信息博弈分析”的理解。

So when I first metJohn Harsanyi at Berkeleyin 1976, I had already learned game theory from him. I told him about my thesisand about the typo on page 210 inhis 1963 paper. He smiled and thanked me. I got to know him better, along withAnne and Tom, when we were together in Bielefeldduring the 1978-79 academic year. I also had the privilege of accompanying himat Northwestern's graduation in 1989 when he received an honorary degree. And Igot to congratulate him on the day that he won the Nobel prize. But whenever wewere together, I wanted him to know how much his work meant to me and otherslike me, in the next generation of game theorists and economists.

因此,当我1976年第一次在伯克利遇到John Harsanyi时,我早就从他那里学到了博弈论。我告诉他我的论文,并告诉他在他1963年论文的210页上的打印错误。他微笑着,说“谢谢你”。在1978-79学年,我、AnneTom以及Harsanyi,一起在Bielefeld,我对他了解就更深了。而且,1989年西北大学的毕业仪式上,他接受了荣誉学位,我有幸陪他一起。在他荣获诺奖的那天,我还祝贺了他。但是,只要我们在一起的时候,我就想告诉他,他的研究,对他的下一代博弈理论家和经济学家中的我以及我这样的人,有着极其重要的意义。


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