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mankiw: 扩张与收缩:谁主沉浮(4)  

2009-07-15 21:30:36|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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四、减税政策的效果及短期效应的分析

The U.S. economy is remarkably flexibleand resilient. Had we done nothing, the economy would eventually have recoveredfrom the recession. But the actions the President took made the recession lesssevere.

美国经济具有极强的灵活性和活力。即使我们袖手旁观,美国经济最终也会从衰退中恢复回来。但是,总统所采取的行动,使得衰退不那么严重。

As the President hasdiscussed, analysis done within the Administration has shown how his tax cutshave substantially offset the series of adverse shocks that have been buffetingthe economy. Simulations of a conventional macroeconomic model show that,without the tax cuts, the level of real GDP would have been about 2 percent lowerin the middle of 2003. About 1.5 million fewer people would have jobs today.The job market is not what we would like it to be right now, but it would havebeen worse without the Administration’s actions.

正如总统所说的,内阁所做的分析,说明了总统的减税如何大幅地抵消了那些打击经济的一系列负面冲击。利用传统的宏观经济模型所进行的模拟,表明:在没有减税的情况下,真实GDP的水平,在2003年的中期,会比现在低2%;如果没有减税,会有150万人不能就业。当前的劳动力市场,还不是我们所期望的那样,但是,如果没有内阁的行动,劳动力市场会更差。

One can view theshort-run effects of these tax cuts from a classic Keynesian perspective. Thetax cuts let people keep more of the money they earned. This supportedconsumption and thus helped maintain the aggregate demand for goods andservices. There is nothing novel about this. It is very conventional short-runstabilization policy: You can find it in all of the leading textbooks.

我们可以从传统的凯恩斯主义的角度来看看这些减税行动的短期效应。减税,使得人们保留下的收入更多。从而使消费得到保证,因而也有助于维持对商品和服务的总需求。在这一点上,没有新的内容。这是一个常见的短期稳定政策:诸位可以在所有的主流教科书上找到它。

But in addition toproviding a Keynesian stimulus to consumption, the tax cuts also addressedtoday’s most important cyclical problem: sluggish investment. As you know, the2001 recession was unusual in the degree to which weak investment was a centraldriving force. Investment weakened substantially starting in 2000, as firmsjoined stock-market investors in reevaluating prospects for future earningsgrowth and developed a reduced tolerance for risk in the aftermath of thebubble. The corporate governance scandals may also have played some role inreducing the willingness of corporate CEOs to take on risky projects.

但是,除了对消费的凯恩斯刺激之外,减税也造成了当前美国的最重要的周期问题:投资的停滞。如诸公所见,因为投资乏力是造成2001衰退的主要力量,抽以,这次衰退是不同寻常的。从2000年开始,投资就明显乏力了:企业与股市投资者一道,对未来的收入增长前景进行了重新的评估,而且,对于互联网泡沫破灭所带来的风险,持有较低的容忍态度。同时,公司治理中的丑闻发挥了一定的作用,使得公司的CEO们从事风险项目的意愿降低了。

To counter thesedevelopments, the Administration’s tax cuts were designed to give businessesincreased incentives to invest. The package included lower taxes on dividendsand capital gains; enhanced expensing for small businesses; temporary bonusdepreciation; and elimination of the estate tax. In addition, lower individualtax rates help sole proprietorships, partnerships, and S corporations. Forthese taxpayers, income flows through to their individual tax returns. All ofthese initiatives lower firms’ cost of capital.

要阻止这些发展趋势,内阁设计的减税,想让企业能够增加投资的激励。这个方案,包括:降低红利税和资本所有税、提高向小型企业的支付、临时的奖金折旧、取消房地产税。除此之外,降低个人税率,有助于独资、合资和小型企业。对于这些纳税人来说,收入流向了他们的个人税收收入部分。所有这些行动,都降低了企业的资本成本。

The tax cuts havethus supported demand—both consumption and investment. This will help bring theeconomy back closer to potential. We are not there yet, and clearly not so inthe labor market. But there are indications that the economy is firming, and weexpect progress in the labor market to follow.

因此,减税也就支持了需求——支持了消费,也支持了投资。这将有助于使经济更接近于潜在生产水平。我们现在还没有达到这个潜在水平,而且,在劳动力市场上,显然没有达到。但是,有一些指标说明了美国经济是处于稳定之中,我们期望在随后的劳动力市场上取得进步。

The Administration’stax cuts, however, should not be viewed only from a short-run perspective. Theywere also designed taking into account the important long-run, supply-sideeffects.

然而,内阁的减税,不应该只从短期的角度来看。在设计减税方案时,还考虑了很重要的长期供给效应。


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