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奥巴马执政总结——半年篇  

2009-07-15 01:22:36|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Six month economic policy status update

Posted on July 7th, 2009 by kbh   【kucha译】

We’re less than two weeks away from the six month mark of the Obama Administration.  Here is a summary I would give to someone who had missed the past six months.  I think the groupings are particularly important.

距离奥巴马政府当权半年之期已经不到两周了。以下是我给那些没注意这半年的同志们做的一个概要。我想这个归总是相当的重要。

Good

  • The bank stress tests worked – regulators now have a common framework to evaluate the health of the 20 largest banks, and these banks are in the process of raising private capital.

   银行压力测试奏效了。管理者现在有了基本的框架来评估20家大银行的健康状况,而且这些银行正在扩充私人资本。

  • Reports are that the Fed’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) is working, providing liquidity to certain markets that lacked it.

   报告中称美联储的TALF(定期资产担保证券贷款机制)奏效了,这解决了某些市场的流动性缺乏问题。

  • There has not been a sudden failure of a major financial institution since the President took office, in part due to significant new government efforts with AIG and Citigroup, and an ongoing flow of hundreds of billions of dollars to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

   自奥巴马总统开工以来,还没有出现大型金融机构突然陷入危机的状况出现。一部分原因是由于新政府对美国国际集团和花旗集团的卓有成效的努力,以及对“两房”持续不断的上千亿美金的注资。

  • As a result, the severe instability that plagued inter-bank lending markets and certain credit markets last fall and winter has largely receded.

    因此,在去年秋冬如瘟疫般弥漫在银行拆借市场和信用市场的剧烈的不稳定性才得以有效减弱。

Bad

      正如副总统在周日说的一样,过去政府低估了短期宏观经济萧条的严重性。

  • The U.S. economy has lost 2.64 million jobs since the beginning of the Administration, and the unemployment rate is now 9.5%.  Most private sector forecasters project economic growth will turn positive in the fourth quarter of this year, with job growth to resume sometime in 2010.  The June job report was really bad.  Watch the July report closely.

     在这届政府组建以来,美国已经累计损失了264万个工作岗位,失业率现在已经是9.5%。大多数私营企业预计今年四季度工程项目经济的增长将会好转,工作岗位的增长将会在2010年左右持续下去。六月份的岗位报告实在是惨不忍睹。让我们关注七月份的报告吧。

  • The stimulus was poorly designed by Congress, such that it is not now having any measurable economic effect, and the bulk of the GDP boost won’t come until 2010.  When you combine this with the missed economic forecast, it means the next six months will be worse than they needed to be.

     国会制定的经济刺激措施不当,以至于目前还没有收到任何可衡量的经济效用,GDP的大幅增长至少2010年才会出现。当我们把这个状况与早被遗忘的经济预测相联系,这就意味着接下来的半年将会更加糟糕。 

  • The President’s budget would result in massive increases in both deficits and taxes, driving by significant proposed spending increases, especially in health care.  CBO projects deficits over the next decade equal to 5.2% of GDP, more than double the cumulative deficit projected under current law.  Debt held by the public would rise from 57% of GDP in 2009 to 82% of GDP by 2019, while taxes would grow from 15.5% of GDP in 2009 to almost 20% by 2019.

    总统的预算将会导致赤字和税收的大幅增加,这是为推动消费的显著增长,尤其是在健康医疗上的。国会预算办公室在未来十年的赤字达到了GDP的5.2%,已经是现行法律允许下的累积赤字的两倍多。美国公民背负的债务占GDP得比例,将从2009年的57%,增长到2019年的82%,而税收,将会从15.5%达到20%.

Too soon to tell

  • Chrysler and General Motors are still operating.  Chrysler has emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and GM is working through the bankruptcy process.  It is good they have not failed, but it is unclear if they will survive in the long run.  If either firm falters, will the Obama Administration give them even more cash?  In addition, the Administration’s heavy-handed path to bankruptcy upended the traditional capital structure, increasing long-term political risk in the United States.

     克莱斯勒和通用正在运营。克莱斯勒已经摆脱了破产法的第11章,而通用正在从破产的阴影中走出来。目前还好他们没有倒下,但是长期来说他们能否幸免并不明朗啊!如果这两家企业中的一家摇摇欲坠了,奥巴马政府会给他们更多的资金么?此外,政府高压的破产路径,也颠覆了传统的资本主义结构,在美国产生了巨大的长期政治风险。

  • There is little apparent progress on the President’s foreclosure prevention plan.  According to the Congressional Budget Office, as of [date], no funds had been spent on the program.  (See footnote d on page 7 of this CBO report.)  It takes time for mortgages to be restructured, so this may just be slow.

    奥巴马总统的止赎权预防计划毫无进展。根据国会预算办公室的数据显示,并没有专款花费在这项计划上(参看CBO报告的第7页注脚)。这些抵押贷款需要时间来重组,所以进展可能会很慢。

 

未完待续……

 

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