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mankiw: 扩张与收缩:谁主沉浮?(1)  

2009-07-12 14:21:36|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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扩张与收缩:谁主沉浮?

[]曼昆

二零零三年九月十五日

 

一、扩张与收缩的因素

I am delighted to behere. I very much appreciate the opportunity to speak with you today. I willtake this time to discuss recent developments in the economy, and some of thechallenges the nation faces going forward. I am also enough of a policy wonkthat I want to discuss some larger issues about how fiscal policy should beevaluated, which apply not only to the President’s policies but to economicpolicy more broadly.

很高兴来到这里。我非常珍惜今天的这个机会,与诸公谈一谈。趁此良机,我想讨论一下当前的经济发展,讨论一下我们在未来的道路上会面对的困难。同时,作为一个十足的政策学究,我还想讨论一些更大的问题,如应该如何评估财政政策,它不仅适用于评估总统的政策,也适用于更广泛意义上的经济政策。

When I arrived at theCouncil of Economic Advisers this spring, I viewed the economy as experiencingsomething similar to a tug of war. It was being pulled in opposite directionsby several powerful forces of contraction and by some equally powerful forcesof expansion.

今年春天,我来到了CEA,我认为美国经济正在经历一种与“拔河”相似的过程。几种强有力的收缩因素,和几种同样强有力的扩张因素,将之拖向完全截然相反的方向。

On the contractionend of the rope were the shocks that the U.S. economy had experienced over thepreceding three years: the end of the high-tech bubble and the consequenteffects on wealth, consumption, and especially investment; the revelation ofyears of wrongdoing at some corporations; and the impact of the September 11attacks and the subsequent uncertainties surrounding the war on terror and theconflict with Iraq.Other contractionary forces came from abroad. Slow growth in many of ourtrading partners, notably Japanand much of Europe, depressed our exports, andit continues to do so today. Given these events, it was remarkable that the U.S.economy was not in worse shape in 2002 and entering 2003, but this fact was oflittle consolation to people looking for work or to retirees who had seen theirsavings depleted by the stock market decline.

在绳索的一端,是收缩的力量,它表现为美国经济在前三年所经历的冲击:高科技泡沫的残局以及由此而对财富和消费、尤其是对投资所产生的效应;某些公司行为不端的被揭披;911袭击的影响以及因反恐和伊战而引致的不确定性。其他的收缩的力量,来自于国外。美国的许多贸易伙伴的经济增长缓慢,最突出的就是日本和欧洲大部分地区。这削弱了美国的出口,并延续到今天。在这样的情况下,尤可注意的是:美国经济在2002年及2003年初,并未出现恶化的情形。但是,对于那些正在找工作的人们,或者对于那些储蓄因股市下滑而减少的退休人员来说,它却并不是令人快慰的事儿。

Pulling hard on theother end of the rope were the expansionary forces of monetary and fiscalpolicy—the Federal Reserve’s series of interest rate cuts and theAdministration’s tax cut in 2001 and the stimulus package of 2002.

在绳索的另一端正在狠命拖拉的,就是货币政策和财政政策的扩张力量。美联储连续不断地降息,政府在2001年时减税,在2002年提出了刺激方案。

This past spring, itlooked like the result of this tug of war was a stand-off—a draw between theforces of contraction and expansion. Growth had resumed after the end of therecession in November 2001, but the pace of growth was far from satisfactory.And of course the labor market remained, and still remains, lagging behind.

就在这个刚过去的春天,这场拔河的结果,好像是一个平手——收缩与扩张不分上下。200111月末结束了衰退之后,重新开始了增长,但是,增长的速度还远不能令人满意。当然,劳动力市场一直是(现在还是)落后的。

Because furtherpolicy action was clearly needed, the President pushed hard for the passage ofhis Jobs and Growth initiative. The purpose of this initiative was not only tohelp push the economy back toward its potential but also to raise thispotential by improving supply-side incentives for work and investment.

因为显然还需要更进一步的政策行动,所以,总统努力地推动通过他的“就业与增长”刺激方案。这个刺激方案,可以通过提高从供给的角度来提高对工作和投资的激励,从而提高经济增长的潜力。

Four months after itspassage, the economy is now headed in the right direction. Earlier in thesummer when the official forecast was made for the Mid-Session Review, growthwas expected to come in at 2.3 percent for 2003, rising to 3.7 percent for2004. This was a notable firming and far enough above potential to increaseemployment. This seemed like a reasonable but still optimistic prediction.

刺激方案已经通过了四个月了,现在,经济也向着正确的方向运行。在今年夏初,官方对“本届政府的中期评估”进行了预测,增长有望在2003年过到2.3%,到2004年时达到3.7%。这个预测对于增长就业,是足够大的强劲了。应该说,它是比较合理的,但还是有一点乐观。

Most of the recentnews has been better than we expected. The signs of a strong rebound are nownumerous, with positive indications coming from retail sales, vehicles sales,disposable income, durable goods shipments and orders, and the ISM surveys ofmanufacturing and non-manufacturing activity. The most recent Blue Chipconsensus forecast is significantly above what we forecast this summer.

最近的新闻,大多数都好于预计。现在,强劲反弹的迹象是很广泛的,零售业、汽车业、可支配收入、耐用品运输量和订单,以及ISM对制造业和非制造业的调研,都是正数级的。最新的蓝筹一致预测,都明显地高过我们今年夏天的预计。

A robust rebound inoutput growth would be a welcome change from the growth rates we have seen sofar in this recovery. The CEA has estimated long-run potential growth at a bitover 3 percent, determined by growth in the labor force plus growth in laborproductivity. Economic growth has generally been below potential in the currentrecovery, but we need growth above that potential to get unemployment backdown.

从增长率的角度来看,产出增长上的稳健反弹,在这轮恢复中,是一个可喜的转变。CEA估计长期潜在增长率应该为3%强。它取决于劳动力的增长和劳动生产率的增长工。经济增长在当前的恢复中,一般是低于潜在水平的,但是,我们需要让增长高于这个潜在水平,从而使失业率降下去。


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