注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

N·格里高利·曼昆的博客

恒甫学社的学术性分支博客

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我
曼昆  

曼昆

网易考拉推荐

克鲁格曼输给了曼昆!  

2009-05-19 22:43:41|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

中文博主按:这并不只是金钱的赌局,这是一场智力赌局,是学术地位的赌局!


曼-克赌局大结局

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Now we know why Krugman wouldn't take Mankiw's bet


GregMankiw after he questioned the Obama Administration's economic growthprojections as being overly optimistic and Paul Krugman slammed him forit:
曼昆,在质疑奥巴马政府的经济增长预测过于乐观之后,受到了克鲁格曼的抨击,于是他就说道:

Wanna bet some of that Nobel money?
拿你的诺奖奖金,跟我赌一场如何?(见“本博客”:http://greg-mankiw.blog.sohu.com/111755120.html)

Paul Krugman suggests that my skepticismabout the administration's growth forecast over the next few years issomehow "evil." Well, Paul, if you are so confident in this forecast,would you like to place a wager on it and take advantage of mywickedness?

Team Obama says that real GDP in 2013 will be 15.6percent above real GDP in 2008. (That number comes from compoundingtheir predicted growth rates for these five years.) So, Paul, are youwilling to wager that the economy will meet or exceed this benchmark?

Krugman's response:
克鲁格曼的回应是:
[... silence ...]
[沉默]
Now we know why....
现在,我们知道克鲁格曼沉默的原因了:
Paul Krugman Says Rapid Recovery ‘Extremely Unlikely’
克鲁格曼说,快速恢复,“极不可能”。

May 12 (Bloomberg)-- Paul Krugman, Princeton University’s Nobel Prize-winning economist,said global economic prospects don’t justify the two-month rally thathas restored $8.9 trillion to stock markets around the world.
克鲁格曼(名头略),说:全球经济前景,并不能支持两个月的元气恢复,即:全球股市恢复至8.9万亿美元。

“Itlooks to me now as if the markets are now pricing in a rapid recovery,that they’re pricing in a V-shaped recession, which I considerextremely unlikely,” Krugman, 56, said at a forum in Shanghai today...
“现在,在我看来,虽然市场现在以高速恢复的方式来定价,它们的定价为一种V型衰退,而我觉得却极不可能。”他在上海说。
Krugman shooting at Mankiw then:
那个时候,克鲁格曼攻击曼昆道:
whenunemployment is high, it tends to fall. And together with Okun’s law,this says that yes, it is right to expect high growth in future if theeconomy is depressed now.
在失业率很高的时候,它就会下降。那么,按奥肯定律,这个说法是对的。如果经济现在衰退,那么,在未来,就会有望出现高增长。

How can you fail to acknowledge thatthere’s huge slack capacity in the economy right now? And yes, we canexpect fast growth if and when that capacity comes back into use.
你怎么会没有认识到:就在现在,经济中有大量的闲散能力?是的,如果这些能力重被利用,当它们被重新利用,就会看到快速增长。
Krugman as quoted yesterday:
昨天,克鲁格曼说:
"Themarket seems to be looking as if this is going to be an averagerecession, but it’s not ... Everything says that’s wrong, that this isgoing to be a sustained period of weakness."
“市场似乎会出现一个一般性的衰退,但是,它可不一般……每一件事,都在说这种看法是错的,这将是一个持续的衰弱过程。
Another circle to square. Score 1-0 in the imputed wager market.
又一个“圆就是正方形”!曼昆1-0胜克鲁格曼了!


Skeptic的妙语

Here is a rough summary of the exchange:
交手的粗略总结:

Mankiw: Obama's forecast is to optimistic. This is probably due to it being in his interest to have an optimistic forecast.
曼昆:奥巴马的预测是太过乐观了。可能是因为他的兴趣就在于得到一个乐观的预测。

Krugman: No it isn't, you are just saying that because you are a Republican hack.
克鲁格曼:不是,你这样说,只是因为你是一个共和党员。

Mankiw: Wanna bet on the accuracy of the forecast?
曼昆:想来赌一个这个预测的精确性吗?

Krugman: Umm... well you see...betting doesn't prove anything!
克鲁格曼(支吾地):嗯……哈……你知道……赌局,并不能证明什么东西!



  评论这张
 
阅读(205)| 评论(0)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017