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曼昆因"负利率"言论被人投诉  

2009-05-13 14:20:43|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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中文博主按:这两天,我受到浙大谭卓事件的刺激,不能集中精力来看资料.幸好我的美女同事,给大家送上了这样的好译作.



Thursday, May 07, 2009

More on Negative Interest Rates

美女同事[译]



From LSE economist (and former central banker) Willem Buiter, who concludes

伦敦政治经济学院(LSE)的经济学家,前中央银行行长,Willem Buiter,认为:

Removingthe zero lower bound on nominal interest rates would represent avaluable addition to the policy arsenal of the central banks. We knowsomething about how interest rates work. There is no reason to believethere would be any dramatic change in the effectiveness of policy ratecuts if these cuts to the rate [are to a] level below zero. We knownext to nothing about the effectiveness of the alternative policiesthat central banks are forced to adopt if they don’t just want to siton their hand[s] once the[y] hit the zero lower bound: quantitativeeasing and credit easing, relaxing the collateral requirements forcentral bank lending etc.

对名义利率,放弃零甚至更低水平的限制,是有意义的,可以充实央行的政策库。利率如何起作用,我们知道一些。没有理由认为,利率降低到零以下,降低利率的政策效果会发生巨变。如果一旦逼近零利率的边界,央行不想仅仅表示不赞成,他们会被迫采用其他的政策,譬如:增加货币量、放松信贷、降低向央行借贷的抵押要求、等等。对这些政策的效果,我们几乎一无所知。

Ishould note that, economic logic aside, the "optics" of negativeinterest rates are not very good. I received more hate mail from my NY Times articleon the topic than from anything else I have ever written. Indeed,Harvard University President Drew Faust received several emailssuggesting that I be fired for writing the piece. She graciously copiedme on her replies, which noted that Harvard faculty are not sacked forespousing controversial ideas. Central bankers, however, do not enjoythe same luxury.

我应该知道,抛开经济学的逻辑不说,负利率带来的“辐射”可真不太好玩儿。因纽约时报上同主题的那篇文章,我接收到很多邮件,充满了憎恨,远远超过以往任何一篇。事实上,哈佛校长Drew Faust 还收到几封邮件,因那篇文章,建议解雇我。她非常和蔼,将回复也给了我一份。回信里说,哈佛的成员,并不会因支持有争议的观点,遭到解聘。然而,央行行长,就没这么幸运了。
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