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克鲁格曼:中国陷入美元困境(3)   

2009-05-09 09:25:43|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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                                          China’s Dollar Trap 

      中国陷入美元困境

     PAUL KRUGMAN
   克鲁格曼

So what Mr. Zhou’s proposal actually amounts to is a plea that someone rescue China from the consequences of its own investment mistakes. That’s not going to happen.

因此,周小川的提议实际上是一种恳求,希望有人能够将中国从其自身投资错误的后果中解救出来。然而这种情况并不会发生。

And the call for some magical solution to the problem of China’s excess of dollars suggests something else: that China’s leaders haven’t come to grips with the fact that the rules of the game have changed in a fundamental way.

与此同时,呼吁采取某种神奇的方法来解决中国过度持有美元的问题,还有别的意思:即中国的领导人还没有认识到,游戏规则已经彻底改变了。

Two years ago, we lived in a world in which China could save much more than it invested and dispose of the excess savings in America. That world is gone.

两年前,我们所处的还是这样一个世界:中国的储蓄远多于投资,并且中国可以在美国处理掉多余的储蓄金。然而,这样的世界已经一去不复返了。

Yet the day after his new-reserve-currency speech, Mr. Zhou gave another speech in which he seemed to assert that China’s extremely high savings rate is immutable, a result of Confucianism, which values “anti-extravagance.” Meanwhile, “it is not the right time” for the United States to save more. In other words, let’s go on as we were.

但是,就在他发表新型储备货币言论后的第二天,周小川又发表了另一篇言论,他似乎主张,中国超高的储蓄率是不可改变的(而这正是受儒家思想中—“反对奢华”这一价值观影响的结果)。与此同时,他还声称,现在并不是美国人存钱的时候。换句话说,他希望我们重蹈覆辙。

That’s also not going to happen.

这种情况当然也不会发生。

The bottom line is that China hasn’t yet faced up to the wrenching changes that will be needed to deal with this global crisis. The same could, of course, be said of the Japanese, the Europeans — and us.

归根结底,中国还没有勇敢地面对处理这波金融危机所需要的痛苦变革。当然,日本人、欧洲人还有我们也都一样。

And that failure to face up to new realities is the main reason that, despite some glimmers of good news — the G-20 summit accomplished more than I thought it would — this crisis probably still has years to run.

尽管一些好消息(如G20高峰会所取得的成果超出了我的预期)带来了一丝曙光,然而,由于我们无法勇敢地面对新的现实情况,这场金融危机也许还会持续好几年。

                                                                  

                                                                              ————(全文结束)


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