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流动性偏好,可贷资金与书呆子尼尔·弗格森(2)  

2009-05-07 12:02:45|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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流动性偏好,可贷资金与书呆子尼尔·弗格森(2)

雨儿[译]

So what determines the level of GDP, and hence also ties down the interest rate? The answer is that you need to add “liquidity preference”, the supply and demand for money. In the modern world, we often take a shortcut and just assume that the central bank adjusts the money supply so as to achieve a target interest rate, in effect choosing a point on the IS curve.
那么,确定国内生产总值在一定水平线上,也关系到降低利率吗?答案是,你需要加入“流动性偏好”理论,以及那些供给和需求钱。在现代社会中,我们经常采取一个捷径和想当然的办法,即中央银行调节货币供应量,从而实现目标利率,有效选择一个弯曲点。

Which brings us to the current state of affairs. Right now the interest rate that the Fed can choose is essentially zero, but that’s not enough to achieve full employment. As shown above, the interest rate the Fed would like to have is negative. That’s not just what I say, by the way: the FT reports that theFed’s own economistsestimate the desired Fed funds rate at -5 percent.
这使我们目前面临严峻形势。现在美联储可能选择的利率实质上是零,但实现充分就业,这是不够的。如上所述,美联储希望是负利率。顺便说一句,这不只是我说:金融时报也报道说,美联储的经济学家们估计,自己所期望的联邦基金利率是-5%.

What does this situation look like in terms of loanable funds? Draw the supply and demand for funds that would obtain if we were at full employment. They look like this:
这个情况看起来是否是依据可贷资金理论?如果我们充分就业,请提供需要的供应和需求资金。他们如下所示:

In effect, we have an incipient excess supply of savings even at a zero interest rate. And that’s our problem.
实际上,即使零利率,我们也存在一个早期储蓄供应过剩的问题。这也的确是我们的问题。

So what does government borrowing do? It gives some of those excess savings a place to go — and in the process expands overall demand, and hence GDP. It does NOT crowd out private spending, at least not until the excess supply of savings has been sopped up, which is the same thing as saying not until the economy has escaped from the liquidity trap.
那么,政府举债干什么?它给那些过剩储蓄一个去向-并在此过程中扩大了总需求,因此,国内生产总值 ,不排挤私人支出,至少直到储蓄供应过剩已饱和,就同样情况而言,直到经济已经摆脱了流动性陷阱。

Now, there are real problems with large-scale government borrowing — mainly, the effect on the government debt burden. I don’t want to minimize those problems; some countries, such as Ireland, are being forced into fiscal contraction even in the face of severe recession. But the fact remains that our current problem is, in effect, a problem of excess worldwide savings, looking for someplace to go.
现在,存在一个政府大规模借贷的现实问题-主要是政府债务负担加重。我不想尽量低估这些问题,有些国家,如爱尔兰,即使在面临严重的经济衰退时也被迫实行财政紧缩。实际上,除了目前仍存在的问题外,全球储蓄过剩这个问题,也应该寻求一个解决的途径。
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