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巴罗读史(1):香港与新加坡的数据异同  

2009-05-02 17:24:48|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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巴罗教授评《双城记:香港与新加坡》

 

ROBERT J. BARRO

Harvard Universityand NBER

 

一九九二年

 

一、香港与新加坡的数据异同

As Krause (1988) suggested in his paper, "HongKong and Singapore: Twins orKissing Cousins?" the economies of Hong Kong and Singapore show similarities anddifferences. Some of the similarities are clear: small city-states that beganunder British colonialism as trading centers with immigrant populations from China. Neithercountry has significant agriculture or natural resources, aside from harbors.In the period since 1960, the paths of per capita real gross domestic product(GDP), ac- cording to Summers and Heston (1991), are very close. Singapore began at 108% of the Hong Kong level(24% of the U.S. level) in1960 and stood at 102% of Hong Kong (62% of the United States) in 1985. Thus, theper capita growth rates from 1960 to 1985 were 5.8% per year for Singapore and 6.0% per year for Hong Kong. In the interim, the paths were not identical,mainly because Hong Kong grew faster in the early 1960s, and Singapore grew faster in the late1960s.

正如Krause(1988)在他的论文《香港与新加坡:双生子或是姑表亲?》所指出的那样:香港和新加坡的经济,表现出相似性,也表现了差异性。有一些相似性是很明显的:都是城市经济体,在英国殖民主义时代,来自于中国的移民,使之成长为贸易中心。这两个经济体,都没有明显的农业或自然资源,都只有港口。自1960年以来,人均的真实GDP的发展过程(据SummersHeston(1991)),是很相近的。1960年时,新加坡是香港的108%(是美国的24%),在1985年时,新加坡是香港的102%(是美国的62%)。因此,在1960-1985年间,新加坡的人均年资本增长率为5.8%,香港是6.0%。这一段时期,增长的路径,并不完全一致,主要是因为香港在1960年代初增长更快,而新加坡在1960年代末增长得更快。

 

The two economies are highly open to internationaltrade and have remarkably high ratios of exports and imports to GDP. Bothcountries have been peaceful and politically stable for some time, although Singapore had difficulties in the 1960s, and Hong Kong's prospects for 1997 are uncertain. They arenearly identical in (age-adjusted) fertility and mortality rates, although Hong Kong has somewhat higher average population growthbecause of greater in-migration. Hong Kong has sig- nificantly higher humancapital in the form of educational attainment, and this gap had not vanished by1985: I estimate that the average years of school attendance for the adult populationin 1960 was 6.2 for Hong Kong and 3.5 for Singapore,whereas in 1985 it was 8.0 for Hong Kong and 5.6 for Singapore.

这两个经济体,对于国际贸易,都是高度开放的;而且,进出口对GDP的比率,都是极高。这两个经济体,在一段时间内,都很和平,都具有政治的稳定性,虽然1960年代的新加坡一度艰难,而香港对1997回归的前景展望一度不确定。它们在(按年龄调整的)出生率和死亡率上,基本完全一致,虽然香港因为移民更多而具有更高的平均人口增长。以教育成就来衡量人力资本,香港明显更高,直至1985年时,这方面的差距,依然没有弥合:我估计,在1960年时,成人的平均就学时间,香港为6.2年,新加坡为3.5年;而在1985年时,香港为8.0年,新加坡为5.6年。

 

Sharp contrasts show up for investment rates, therelated behavior of consumption, the current-account balance, direct foreigninvestment, and the role of government. Hong Kong'sratio of real gross investment to real GDP from 1960 to 1985 has beenreasonably stable at around 21%. Singapore, in contrast, began atabout 13% in the early 1960s, reached 21% between 1965 and 1969, and thensoared to an average of 37% from 1970 to 1985. Much of this investment boom wasfinanced by massive current-account deficits, between 10 and 20% of GDP for the1970s, and a lot of the investment was carried out by foreigners. Thecurrent-account deficits were not eliminated until 1985; since then, theSingaporean current account has moved into a surplus of 8% of GDP in 1989. Hong Kong, in contrast, experienced relatively smallimbalances on the current account throughout the period.

在投资率、相关的消费行为、经常账户余额、直接外国投资和政府的角色这几方面,香港与新加坡具有截然的差异。在1960-1985年间,真实总投资与直实GDP的比率,香港一直稳定在21%左右;而新加坡却相反,在1960年初为13%左右,在1965-1969年间,达到21%,然后,在1970-1985年间,暴涨为平均37%。这种投资暴涨的资金来源,为巨额的经常账户赤字。在1970年代,经常账户赤字为GDP10%-20%;而且大部分的投资是外国投资。经常账户赤字,直至1985年时,也从未消除。自1985年起,新加坡的经常账户,逐渐变成了19898%GDP的盈余。相反,香港,在整个这一阶段,在经常账户上,都只有相对较小的不均衡。

 

The sharp rise of investment spending in Singapore,although moderated initially by borrowing from abroad, meant that privateconsumption spending grew much more slowly than GDP. (Government consumptionpurchases as a fraction of GDP rose by only a small amount over the period.) In1960, when Singapore's per capita real GDP was 108% of Hong Kong's, the percapita real consumption was 155% of Hong Kong's (according to Summers andHeston, 1991). In 1985, when Singapore's per capita real GDP was 102% of HongKong's, the consumption was only 70% of Hong Kong's. To put it another way,Hong Kong's per capita real consumption grew by 5.9% per year from 1960 to1985, about the same as for GDP, whereas Singapore's grew by only 2.8% peryear, much less than GDP. Things seem, however, to be changing: Singapore's percapita consumption grew by 7.2% per year from 1985 to 1989, and nominal grossinvestment spending fell from its peak of 48% of nominal GDP in 1984-1985 to amere 37% in 1989.

新加坡的投资支出的急速增长(虽然一开始为境外借款有所抵消),说明了:私人消费支出的增长速度,要远低于GDP的增长速度。(政府消费购买,作为GDP的一部分,在这一阶段,也只增加了一点点。)在1960年,虽然新加坡的人均直实GDP为香港的108%,但是,人均真实消费却为香港的155%(SummersHeston,1991)。在1985年时,虽然新加坡的人均真实GDP,为香港的102%,但是,它的消费却只有香港的70%。换一种说法来说,在1960-1985年间,香港的人均真实消费年增长率为5.9%,而新加坡却为2.8%,速度远低于GDP。然而,形势似乎却发生了变化:1985-1989年间,新加坡的人均消费年增速为7.2%,而名义总投资支出,却从其顶峰(1984-1985年占名义GDP48%),跌至1989年的37%了。

 

Hong Kong's government has been less interventionistby far, although its land policies resemble those of Stanford University.Vast, valuable holdings are allowed to lie fallow and are brought onto themarket at a remarkably slow pace. Singapore has been especiallyactive in compelling private saving and in subsidizing foreign investment. Itsdirect public investment is also much higher than Hong Kong's: The officialfigures, which do not deal satisfactorily with public enterprises, show thatthe ratios of public investment to GDP in 1985 were 13% for Singapore and 5% for Hong Kong.

香港的政府,迄今为止,都不是干预主义者,虽然它的土地政策,与斯坦福大学的情况有点一样。大量的、价值不菲的住房,处于闲置状态,以极其缓慢的速度上市。新加坡在管束私人储蓄和补贴外国投资方面,采取特别积极的态度。新加坡的直接公共投资,也比香港要高得多:官方数据(公共企业的数据上,不令人满意),说明了,在1985年时,公共投资对GDP的比率,新加坡为13%,香港为5%

 

(待续)

 

 

 

 

 

 

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