注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

N·格里高利·曼昆的博客

恒甫学社的学术性分支博客

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我
曼昆  

曼昆

网易考拉推荐

索洛大战波斯纳(3):何为“杠杆”?  

2009-04-26 17:19:50|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

中文博主按:我在看第一遍的时候,觉得索洛的文笔真够拖塌的。今天,我从迷糊中苏醒了过来,又看了一遍那个“老兵不死,他们只是凋零”的演讲,却开始深深为索洛所感动。但愿我到了他这个时候,还能写得这么好。这么平易亲切。

三、何为“杠杆”?

If I had written that, it would not be news. From RichardPosner, it is. The underlying argument—it is not novel but it is sound—goessomething like this. A modern capitalist economy with a modern financial systemcan probably adapt to minor shocks—positive or negative—with just a little helpfrom monetary policy and mostly automatic fiscal stabilizers: for example, thelower tax revenues and higher spending on unemployment insurance and socialassistance that occur in a weakening economy without any need for deliberateaction. It is easy to be lulled into the comfortable belief that the system cantake care of itself if only do-gooders will leave it alone. But that same financialsystem has intrinsic characteristics that can make it self-destructivelyunstable when it meets a large shock. One such characteristic is asymmetricinformation: some market participants know things that others don't, and canturn that knowledge into profit. Another is the capacity of financialengineering to produce securities so complicated and opaque—for example,collateralized debt obligations and other exotic derivatives—that almost no onein the market can understand their implications. (Insiders still have anexploitable advantage.)

若是索某人我来写这段话,并没有什么稀奇;妙就妙在是李察·波斯纳写的。其内在的逻辑(虽不新鲜,却也合情合理),大体如下:现代金融体系下之现代资本主义经济,可以适应小型冲击(无论正负),货币政策和自动的财政稳定器,对此略有助益:譬如,衰弱经济中,无需刻意的行动,下调税收、提高失业保险和社会救助,即可。人们很容易产生一个甜蜜的信念:只要那些“好人儿”放手不管,社会体系就会自我照料自己。但是,同样是这个金融体系,却具有一种内在的特质:在遭遇大型冲击时,它就具有自我解构式的不稳定性。其中,有一个特质,叫“不对称信息”:一些市场参与者知道,而有一些人却不知道,知道的人,就将这种“知道”转化为了利润。另一个特质,就是金融工程创造复杂含糊证券的能力——譬如担保信托债券和其他奇怪衍生品,对于这些东西,市场里的人们,差不多都不理解它们的含义。(内部人,有着剥削优势。)

Yet another characteristic is the inevitability of marketimperfections, so that what is essentially the same object can sell for two ormore different prices; or so that some market prices can be manipulated by large,informed operators; or so that some markets take a long time to match supplyand demand. And yet another is the possibility that large financialinstitutions can raise large sums of credit, in amounts and ways that canaffect the whole system, without anyone taking account of, or feelingresponsible for, the systemwide effects.

而另一个特质就是:市场不完备的不可避免,因此,本质上,同样的特品可以有两种或多种不同的价格;或者,因此,有一些市场价格,可以被大型的“知情的”运营者所操控。再有一个特质就是:大型金融机构,可以筹集大量信用,其数量与方式,均可影响整个经济体系,而这些人从未考虑过全局性影响,或者,没有觉得应该为全局性影响承担责任。

In that kind of world, imagine a period of low interestrates. Once a set of profit opportunities is found, big operators will betempted to borrow so that they can play with much more than their own capital,and thus make very large profits. This has come to be called"leverage." Suppose I have $100,000 of my own, and I see anopportunity to earn a 10 percent return. If it pans out, I make $10,000; if itearns nothing, I have my original stake. If it loses money, that comes out ofmy initial capital. But I have a shot at something bigger. I can borrow$900,000 at, say, 5 percent interest, and invest the whole million. If it earnsthe expected 10 percent, I have $1,100,000; I can pay off my debt, plusinterest of $45,000, and have $155,000 left. I have earned 55 percent on mymoney. Only in America!Of course, if the investment earns zero, I must still pay back my borrowing,with interest, which leaves me with $55,000. I have lost almost half of mycapital; and it could be worse. Risk cuts both ways. What I have just describedis 10-to-1 leverage; the size of the total bet is ten times my equity.

在这样的一种世界里,让我们想象一个“低利率时代”。一旦人们发现了一组利润机会,大型的运营者,就会试图借一点钱,这样,就可以操控更多的资本了,因此,也能得到非常大的利润。这种事,被称为“杠杆”。假设我自己有10万美元,而且,我看到了一个10%收益的机会。如果成功了,我就赚到了1万美元;如果没有赚到,我还有自己的本钱;如果亏了本,那就是我自己的原始资本。但是,我期望着得到更多。譬如,我可以以5%的利率,来借90万美元;并将整个的100万用来投资。如果它赚到了期望的10%,那么,我就有了110万;我可以支付掉债务,以及45千元的利息。最后,我手上就有了155千元。这样,我就有了55%的收益。哈,这可是一件美国的美事儿!当然,如果,如果投资没有收益,我还可以还掉借款和利息,剩下来55千元。我差不多亏了一半的钱;当然,结果还可以更差。风险使之有两个分野。我刚才所说,即为101的杠杆;赌局总规模为10乘以我的资本。

In the past, 10-to-1 leverage would have been about par fora bank. More recently, during the housing bubble that preceded the currentcrisis, many large financial institutions, including now-defunct investmentbanks such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, reached for 30-to-1 leverage,sometimes even more. So suppose I borrow $2.9 million to go with my very own$100,000—leverage of 29 to 1. I can buy $3 million of whatever asset I fancy.If it earns 10 percent, I repay the $2.9 million plus $145,000 in interest and gohome with $255,000, having earned a mere 155 percent on my own capital. Butnow, if the investment earns zero, I have an asset worth $3 million andliabilities of $3.045 million. I am, to coin a phrase, bankrupt. And this iswhen I have invested in an asset that is worth, at the end of the year, exactlywhat I paid for it at the beginning. If I had bought a piece of a complicatedpackage of subprime mortgages, as many investors did, it might be worth lessthan I paid for it a year ago. In fact, there might be no takers at all. Thereis no way of knowing what the package of mortgages might be worth in a coupleof years; when it comes to raising more cash to cover my debt, it is worthessentially nothing, i.e., it can neither be sold nor used as collateral.Whoever lent me the $3.045 million, including interest, has lost the whole thing.

在过去,101的杠杆,对于银行来说,是一件正常的事。更近一些时候,就在当前危机之前的房地产泡沫之中,许多大型的金融机构,包括现在已经死掉的投资银行,像贝尔斯顿和雷曼兄弟,达到了101的杠杆,有时,还要更大。这样,假设,我借了290万。再假设我自己的10万——杠杆就是291。我可以用它来购买我所喜欢的任何一种价值300万的资产。如果能得到10%,那么,我就把290万的本金和145千元的利息,还掉,然后,带着255千元回家,这样,我就得到了155%的收益。但是,现在,如果投资收益为零,我就有了300万的资产和3.045百万的债务。用一句话来说,我就破产了。这正是我所投资的、在年底需要偿还的一开始就有的资产。如果我像许多投资者那样,购买了一个复杂的次级贷资产,那么,这可能就不值一年前的那个价值了。实际上,没有人会来接手。可是,人们却没有办法知道,这个抵押资产,在几年之后,究竟值多少钱。如果你需要借钱来还债,那么,这个资产本质上就什么都不是了。即,你既卖不掉它,也不能用来做抵押。那些把3.045百万元借给我的人,就亏得一干二净了。


(待续)

  评论这张
 
阅读(53)| 评论(0)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017