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阿马蒂亚·森的评论(5):庇古比凯恩斯更重要  

2009-04-11 11:23:57|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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五、庇古比凯恩斯更重要

 

While AdamSmith has recently been much quoted, even if not much read, there has been ahuge revival, even more recently, of John Maynard Keynes. Certainly, thecumulative downturn that we are observing right now, which is edging us closerto a depression, has clear Keynesian features; the reduced incomes of one groupof persons has led to reduced purchases by them, in turn causing a furtherreduction in the income of others.

虽然亚当斯密最近被大量的引用,(即使没有被深入阅读,)但是,约翰梅纳德凯恩斯却开始广泛地再流行了起来,就在最近,流行得更广泛。当然,我们现在看到的、正将我们一步步地推向萧条的“渐增式下滑”,具有明显的凯恩斯式的特征;一群人的收入下降,导致了这些人的购买下降,接着,让其他人的收入进一步地下降。

 

However,Keynes can be our savior only to a very partial extent, and there is a need tolook beyond him in understanding the present crisis. One economist whosecurrent relevance has been far less recognized is Keynes's rival Arthur CecilPigou, who, like Keynes, was also in Cambridge,indeed also in Kings College, in Keynes'stime. Pigou was much more concerned than Keynes with economic psychology andthe ways it could influence business cycles and sharpen and harden an economicrecession that could take us toward a depression (as indeed we are seeing now).Pigou attributed economic fluctuations partly to "psychologicalcauses" consisting of

然而,凯恩斯要做我们的救世主吗?他只能起一点点的作用。如果我们要理解当前的危机,就需要看看凯恩斯之外的人。有一个经济学家,他的论述,与当前的情况相关,但是,却被大家极大地忽视了,这就是凯恩斯的对手,阿瑟西塞尔庇古。与凯恩斯一样,他也是剑桥人,实际上,也在国王学院,还跟凯恩斯同时代。庇古比凯恩斯还更加关注“经济心理”问题,他更关注“经济心理”影响商业周期、加剧衰退和恶化衰退(这衰退会将我们带入萧条,正如我们现在确切地看到的情形)的方式。庇古将经济波动部分地归因于“心理因素”,它包括:

 

variations in the tone of mind of personswhose action controls industry, emerging in errors of undue optimism or unduepessimism in their business forecasts.[5]

人们(他们的行为控制着产业)的心理波动,这种心理波动来自对商业预期的不当乐观或不当悲观所导致的偏误。

 

It is hardto ignore the fact that today, in addition to the Keynesian effects of mutuallyreinforced decline, we are strongly in the presence of "errors of...unduepessimism." Pigou focused particularly on the need to unfreeze the creditmarket when the economy is in the grip of excessive pessimism:

我们不应该忽视的是:今天,除了“相互强化的下滑”的凯恩斯效应之外,我们还处于“不当悲观偏误”之中。庇古特别侧重论述了:当经济处于极度悲观的魔爪之中时,我们应该解冻信用市场:

 

Hence, other things being equal, the actualoccurrence of business failures will be more or less widespread, according [towhether] bankers' loans, in the face of crisis of demands, are less or morereadily obtainable.[6]

因此,在其他保持不变的情况下,商业失败的扩散是广还是窄,取决于银行贷款的获得,在面对需求危机的时候,是易还是难。

 

Despitehuge injections of fresh liquidity into the American and European economies,largely from the government, the banks and financial institutions have untilnow remained unwilling to unfreeze the credit market. Other businesses alsocontinue to fail, partly in response to already diminished demand (theKeynesian "multiplier" process), but also in response to fear of evenless demand in the future, in a climate of general gloom (the Pigovian processof infectious pessimism).

尽管在美国经济和欧洲经济中,大量流入了新鲜的流动性,(这些流动性大部分来自于政府、银行和金融机构),但是,它们至今还不愿意解冻信用市场。其它商业,也持续地下滑,部分是由于早已萎缩的需求(这是凯恩斯的乘数过程),同时,还是由于在一个普遍的哀伤之中(这是庇古的悲观感染过程),人们对未来更低的需求所产生的恐惧。

 

One of theproblems that the Obama administration has to deal with is that the realcrisis, arising from financial mismanagement and other transgressions, hasbecome many times magnified by a psychological collapse. The measures that arebeing discussed right now in Washington and elsewhere to regenerate the creditmarket include bailouts—with firm requirements that subsidized financialinstitutions actually lend—government purchase of toxic assets, insuranceagainst failure to repay loans, and bank nationalization. (The last proposalscares many conservatives just as private control of the public money given tothe banks worries people concerned about accountability.) As the weak responseof the market to the administration's measures so far suggests, each of thesepolicies would have to be assessed partly for their impact on the psychology ofbusinesses and consumers, particularly in America.

奥巴马政府必须应对的一个问题就是:这个真实的危机,虽来自于金融的管理不善和其他违法问题,却已被心理崩溃无数倍地放大。华盛顿和其他地方,现在讨论的再造信用市场的措施,包括救市(企业要求对真正放贷的金融机构进行补贴)、政府购买有毒资产、对无法偿还贷款给予保险、以及银行国有化。(最后一条建议,让许多保守派吓坏了;而且,给予银行的公共资金,被私人控制,让人们担心它的责任问题。)因为,到现在为止,市场对政府措施反应冷淡,这说明了:这些政策,每一项都要部分地考虑它们对商业心理和消费者心理的影响,特别是美国,特别要考虑一下。


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