注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

N·格里高利·曼昆的博客

恒甫学社的学术性分支博客

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我
曼昆  

曼昆

网易考拉推荐

今夜枪声大作(待译)  

2009-05-24 21:27:41|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |
Thursdayevening, the Metropolitan Museum, New York. The big guns are outtonight, on a panel sponsored by The New York Review of Books and PENWorld Voices: Niall Ferguson of Harvard, Paul Krugman of Princeton (andThe New York Times), Nouriel Roubini of New York University, formerSenator Bill Bradley and George Soros, among others. The Met’s bigauditorium is packed.

This is doom-and-gloom central. Lots of talkabout zombie banks, failures to understand history, regulatoryfoolishness. Mr. Bradley, who speaks first, suggests that if thegovernment’s plan to save the banks doesn’t work, it should simply buyCitibank — “its current market cap is about $17 billion,” he said —clean it up, and spin it off to the American people in a rightsoffering. Mr. Ferguson, a provocative historian, keeps saying that theUnited States is becoming akin to a Latin American economy: “At whatpoint do people stop believing in the dollar as a reserve currency?” heasks ominously.

“Thescale of the crisis has overwhelmed the response,” Mr. Krugman says. Tothe extent there are green shoots, he added, “it means that things aregetting worse more slowly.” Mr. Roubini practically scoffs at thenotion that we might see positive economic growth in the second half ofthe year. Mr. Soros says that “we are currently facing a deflationarysituation. But when credit restarts, the fear of deflation will bereplaced by fear of inflation, and there will be pressure for interestrates to rise.” Something to look forward to, I suppose.

Ican’t say that I left the Metropolitan Museum with any more claritythan when I began my little symposia tour. I’d heard some good ideas,and cheery news among the dire forecasts. What it did cause me torealize is that all these smart economists and forecasters are lookingat the same set of data, and coming to radically different conclusionsbased on their politics, their temperament and their idiosyncraticreading of history. Just like the rest of us.
Next week, the resultsof the stress tests will be unveiled, and we’ll see it all over again.Some of the same people I saw on stage this week will say the tests area whitewash, while others will claim that they’re an important step onthe road to recovery. Both sides will marshal persuasive data andstrong arguments, providing plenty of fodder for the next round ofconferences.
At least that much is certain.
  评论这张
 
阅读(84)| 评论(0)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017