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财政刺激效果无法衡量的理论分析  

2009-05-22 19:00:41|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Sunday, May 17, 2009

Accountability?


美女同事
[译]

When the Obama stimulus plan was proposed, the president's economic team put out a report in January 2009that purported to show what would happen with and without the fiscalstimulus. The chart above is from page four that report, together withthe actual results over the past couple months. As you can see, theactual outcome is significantly worse than the projection with thestimulus plan and is, in fact, roughly on track with what was projectedwithout the stimulus.

当奥巴马的刺激方案提出之后,20091月,总统的经济团队发布了一份报告,意在显示,财政刺激的有无,将产生不同的影响。上图来自报告的第4页,同时也包括了过去两个月中,经济运行的实际结果。你可以看到,实际结果比存在刺激方案时的预测结果要差很多;实际上,几乎与不存在刺激方案时的预测结果雷同。

 

Whatdoes this mean? One interpretation is that the fiscal stimulus hasfailed to achieve what Team Obama thought it would. Anotherinterpretation is that the baseline was worse than they believed at thetime. I am confident the report authors would adopt the secondinterpretation. If so, that fact is consistent with what I said in a previous post:In light of the shifting baseline, it is impossible to hold theadministration accountable for whether its policies are achieving theirintended effects.

这意味着什么呢?解释之一,财政刺激没有达到奥巴马团队的预期。另一个解释是,原始经济状况比他们当时认为的更差。这样的话,事实就与我在以前的帖子里所说的一致起来:根据一个不确定的基础状况,对于政策能否达到预期效果这个问题,政府是不太可能对此负责的。

 

Tobe clear, this lack of accountability is not a feature on this specificadministration but is, instead, a reflection of the inherentuncertainties associated with macroeconomics. The administration,however, has not been particularly forthrightin admitting to this lack of accountability. Indeed, the act ofreleasing quarterly reports on how many jobs have been "created orsaved" gives the illusion of accountability without the reality.

说得清楚一点,这种类型的不负责任,并不是某一特定政府的特征;相反,它反映了宏观经济内在的不确定性。然而,政府在承认此类不负责任之时,并不是特别直率。实际上,就“创造或挽救”的工作数量,发布季度报告的举动,给了大家一个负责任的假象,毫无现实性。
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